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| Titel |
Comparison of Dynamical and Statistical Downscaling Methods Applied to the ECMWF-System3 Global Seasonal Forecasts |
| VerfasserIn |
E. Diez, F. Franco, A. S. Cofiño, M. D. Frias, J. Fernandez, J. M. Gutiérrez, M. A. Rodríguez, B. Orfila |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2009
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 11 (2009) |
| Datensatznummer |
250029938
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In this work we present a comparison of statistical and dynamical downscaling methods applied to global seasonal forecasts. To this aim we use the hindcast of the ECMWF System3 ensemble forecast system (41 members), and consider a period of 25 year with available boundary conditions for 11 members. The RCA-v3 model was applied in this period, obtaining surface temperature and precipitation forecasts at a resolution of 50 km over Spain. Moreover, analog-based statistical downscaling methods were applied to the 41 members using a 50 km grid of interpolated observations for temperature and precipitation over Spain (SpainHR grid), obtaining statistical forecasts in a grid suitable for comparison with the dynamical counterparts. We compare the direct model outputs with the regional predictions (both dynamical and statistical) using a simple and robust statistical test based on ROC skill Area (RSA), providing also bootstrap-based confidence intervals for the results. We also test the sensibility of the results to the size of the ensemble. |
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