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| Titel |
High-Resolution Long-Term Earthquake Forecasts for California and Italy |
| VerfasserIn |
M. J. Werner, A. Helmstetter, D. D. Jackson, Y. Y. Kagan |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2009
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 11 (2009) |
| Datensatznummer |
250029894
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We present five-year and ten-year estimates of m > 5 earthquake probabilities in California and Italy. The forecasts will be tested independently and prospectively in the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). Our long-term forecasts are calculated from smoothing declustered seismicity and assuming a tapered Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution. We carefully account for catalog completeness issues and optimize the amount of smoothing in retrospective tests. Confirming a previous finding, retrospective tests suggest that including small m > 2 earthquakes significantly improves the spatial forecast of m > 5 earthquakes. In contrast to other, relatively smooth models in CSEP, our forecasts have high spatial resolution - a feature apparently responsible for the model’s current lead in the 19-model, five-year RELM experiment in California. We compare the Californian and Italian forecasts and evaluate the performance of the forecasts using the likelihood score. |
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