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| Titel |
Relation between large-scale circulation and European winter temperature: Does it hold under warmer climate? |
| VerfasserIn |
K. Goubanova, L. Li, P. Yiou, F. Codron |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2009
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 11 (2009) |
| Datensatznummer |
250029585
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The idea of using large-scale information to predict local climate variability is widely exploited in climate change impact studies as an alternative to computationally expensive high-resolution regional models. This approach implies the hypothesis that the statistical relationship between large-scale climate states and local variables defined for the present-day climate remains valid in the altered climate.
In this paper, the concept of weather regimes is used to deduce a relationship between large-scale circulation and European winter temperature. The change in temperature simulated by a model forced with increased greenhouse gases is however not homogeneous among individual regimes. As a result, the statistical relation obtained for the present climate does not hold everywhere in the future, limiting its usefulness for predicting local temperature changes. |
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