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| Titel |
Effects of climate uncertainties on welfare optimal investment streams into mitigation technologies |
| VerfasserIn |
H. Held, E. Kriegler, K. Lessmann, A. Lorenz |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2009
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 11 (2009) |
| Datensatznummer |
250029187
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We discuss a stylised portfolio of climate change mitigation options and ask the following
question: what is the intertemporally optimal mix of these options under the boundary
condition of a climate guardrail and uncertainty about the temperature response
to rising carbon dioxide concentrations? We impose a guardrail that requires the
increase of global mean temperature T to be limited to 2K with at least a minimum
probability P (e.g., P=0.75). The uncertainty about the temperature response is
captured by a PDF for climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake. For economic
optimisation, we use an ensemble-version of the growth model MIND [1]. As a key results
we show that robust climate protection paths will require aggressive mitigation
measures [2]. In this context it is also possible to ask for the economic potential of
reducing uncertainty in climate sensitivity [3] and ocean heat uptake [4] that is
generically by orders of magnitude larger than the costs induced by the related research
programmes.
References
[1] O. Edenhofer., N. Bauer, E. Kriegler: The Impact of Technological Change on Climate
Protection and Welfare: Insights from the Model MIND. Ecological Economics, 54 (2-3):
277-292 (2005).
[2] H. Held, E. Kriegler, K. Lessmann, O. Edenhofer, Efficient Climate Policies under
Technology and Climate Uncertainty, Energy Economics, in press.
[3] T. Schneider von Deimling, H. Held, A. Ganopolski, S. Rahmstorf, Climate sensitivity
estimated from ensemble simulations of glacial climates, Climate Dynamics 27, 149-163,
DOI 10.1007/s00382-006-0126-8 (2006).
[4] A. Lorenz, Diploma Thesis, U Potsdam (2007). |
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