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| Titel |
An estimate of Earth System Sensitivity from the Pliocene |
| VerfasserIn |
D. Lunt, A. Haywood, G. Schmidt, U. Salzmann, P. Valdes, H. Dowsett |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2009
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 11 (2009) |
| Datensatznummer |
250027950
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| Zusammenfassung |
| One of the cornerstones of future climate research has been the attempt to characterise the
equilibrium global temperature response of the Earth to a doubling of atmospheric CO2
concentration. However, due to insufficient understanding of key mechanisms and a lack of
the necessary computational resource, studies have traditionally neglected possible
changes to components of the system which act on long timescales, such as ice sheets
and vegetation. Because there is evidence of past time periods when the whole
Earth System was close to equilibrium with elevated CO2, a combined palaeo data
and modelling approach can be used to estimate the true long-term response of
the Earth System to increased CO2. The mid-Pliocene (about 3 million years ago)
provides an ideal case study, as CO2 was higher than modern, temperature elevated,
and ice sheet and vegetation changes relatively well constrained by observations.
Here, we show that the long-term response of the Earth System to elevated CO2,
including ice sheet and vegetation changes (the Earth System sensitivity), is about 60%
greater than the more traditional short term response (the Charney sensitivity). |
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