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| Titel |
A Bayesian Procedure for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Grezio, W. Marzocchi, L. Sandri, P. Gasparini |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2009
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 11 (2009) |
| Datensatznummer |
250027324
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We implement a Bayesian procedure for the Probability Tsunami Hazard Assessment
(PTHA). The approach is general and modular incorporating all significant information
relevant for the hazard assessment, such as theoretical and empirical background, analytical
or numerical models, instrumental and historical data. The procedure provides the a
posteriori probability distribution that integrates the a priori probability distribution
based on the physical knowledge of the process, and the likelihood based on the
historical data. Also, the method deals with aleatory and epistemic uncertainties
incorporating in a formal way all sources of relevant uncertainty, from the tsunami
generation process to the wave propagation and impact on the coasts. The modular
structure of the procedure is flexible and easy to modify and/or update as long as new
models and/or information are available. Finally, the procedure is applied to an
hypothetical region, Neverland, to clarify the PTHA evaluation in a realistic case. |
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