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| Titel |
Future recovery of summer Arctic sea ice loss |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Tietsche, D. Notz, W. Müller, J. Jungclaus, J. Marotzke |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2009
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 11 (2009) |
| Datensatznummer |
250026959
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| Zusammenfassung |
| During the 21st century, the Arctic Ocean will very likely experience a transition from
perennial to seasonal sea ice cover owing to anthropogenic climate change. Will
this transition be gradual, or is there a critical threshold for the summer sea ice
extent, below which the ice-albedo feedback inhibits the recovery of summer sea
ice?
We examine this question using the global atmosphere-sea-ice-ocean model
ECHAM5/MPI-OM. For the IPCC emission scenario A1B, the model predicts that the Arctic
Ocean is essentially ice-free in September from the 2070s on. For the transition time period
before that, we perform a series of experiments for which we artificially remove the
Arctic sea ice in one summer, analyzing the changed ice cover in the following
years.
First results indicate that, for the climate of the first half of the 21st century, Arctic sea ice
recovers from summer ice-free conditions within a year. We investigate the mechanisms that
mitigate the ice-albedo feedback and restore the state of the summer sea ice. We do not
find a ‘tipping point’ for climate states with small Arctic sea ice caps. Hence, a
smooth transition from perennial to seasonal Arctic sea ice cover can be expected. |
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