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| Titel |
The CSEP EU Testing Center |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Wiemer, W. Marzocchi, D. Schorlemmer, J. Woessner, F. Euchner |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2009
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 11 (2009) |
| Datensatznummer |
250026504
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The CSEP EU Testing Center at ETH Zurich (eu.cseptesting.org) represents the European node of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). It is funded in parts through the through the EU project NERIES (www.neries-eu.org/) and serves multiple testing regions within Europe. The first is Italy, sponsored by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV). For the Italian testing region, prospective testing of long-term (5 and10 year) models is scheduled to commence April 1 2009. More than 10 models have pre-registered for this testing class. In addition, about 10 short-term models (1 days and 3 months) will be installed at the testing center in Zurich throughout 2009, and added to prospective testing every three months. Models span the full range of purely statistical to mostly physics-based models, and have been contributed from researchers from more than 8 institutions across Europe. Model forecasts are to be evaluated against the earthquakes of magnitude 4 and 5 and above, as reported by INGV.
The next testing region that has been proposed is Iceland, with prospective testing possible as early as 2010 if funds become available. In the medium term, testing should become an integral part of the emerging European Plate Observing System (http://www.epos-eu.org/), a research infrastructure for data and observatories on earthquakes, volcanoes, surface dynamics and tectonics. The CSEP EU Testing Center is also gearing up to serve the validation needs of SHARE, the next generation European seismic hazard model, and GEM, the Global Earthquake Model (www.globalquakemodel.org), a private-public partnership with the goal of creating a new global earthquake hazard and risk model by the year 2013. Continuous validation is seen as a critical step for the GEM model to gain acceptance and successively improve the underlying rate models. This presentation will give an update on the status of the testing center and the Italian testing region. |
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