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| Titel |
Precipitation analysis in ENSEMBLES |
| VerfasserIn |
F. Boberg, P. Berg, J. H. Christensen, P. Thejll |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2009
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 11 (2009) |
| Datensatznummer |
250025581
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| Zusammenfassung |
| ensemble of regional climate modelling simulations from the European framework
project ENSEMBLES are compared across European sub-regions with observed daily
precipitation from the European Climate Assessment dataset by characterising precipitation
in terms of probability density functions (PDFs). Models that robustly describe
the observations for the control period (1961-1990) in given regions are identified,
based on the overlap of normalised PDFs. This is followed by a comparison of the difference
between the scenario period (2071-2100) and the control period using the best
models obtained. By using a metric quantifying the error over the entire PDF, we find
a clearly marked increase in the contribution to the total precipitation from the more
intensive events in the scenario period almost everywhere. We demonstrate that there
is a detectable increase scaling with increased warming, making it a relative indicator
of climate change level. Furthermore, the crossover point from moderate to more intense
precipitation does not show any significant change which is in accordance with
expectations assuming a simple analytical fit to the precipitation spectrum. |
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