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| Titel |
The chaotic properties of western mediterranean climate |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Pérez-Lluch, J. A. Pascual-Aguilar, V. Andreu |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2009
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 11 (2009) |
| Datensatznummer |
250025195
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The behaviour of rainfall in the Mediterranean region has been target of multiple studies
because of its social economic and environmental implications. Mediterranean rainfalls are
characterized by great variability between years combined whit recurrent drought periods and
highly intense rain events. These circumstances favour the intensification of erosion processes
and the incidence of landslides, floods, etc.
Western Mediterranean zones show these facts more acute, which could become more
critical in a near future according to climate change scenarios. Within such environments, see
facing lands of Spain present most contrasting rainfall regimes within the western
Mediterranean climates.
Under such conditions, it is of paramount importance to determine rainfall behaviour
according not only to general climate trends but also to specific microscale, or local,
conditions -such as topograpy- that could be reflected in a random behaviour of
rainfall.
The objective of this work is to establish rainfall characteristics due to local topographic
conditions according to the possible existence of chaotic dynamics. The methodology
applies the correlation dimension method to analyse the presence of chaotic dynamics
to rainfall time serie. This technique allows calculating the necessary variables
to explain the rain behaviour and to establish suitable models that assume their
complexity.
The methodology have been applied to two monthly rainfall series (1950-1990) belonging
to neighbouring stations with different topographic locations. Both rainfall stations, Elche
and Novelda, are located in Alicante, eastern Spain, along the littoral mountain system.
Elche with a SE orientation has a major marine influence, while Novelda, with a
NW orientation, presents different local conditions with less Mediterranean sea
influences.
Results show a chaotic trend of low dimensionality in the two series analysed, having a
clear saturation of correlation exponent for Elche rainfall records, whereas for Novelda
station this trend is not so clearly established. According to the specific local conditions
represented by topographic orientation, the obtained results are related favourably to the
particular characteristics of each station. For that reason, the differences obtained in both
series could be attributed to certain specific local factors that are well represented by the
correlation dimension method. |
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