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| Titel |
Non-stationarity in the NAO-temperature relation over the Baltic Sea catchment |
| VerfasserIn |
F. Schenk, D. Hansson, S. Wagner, E. Zorita |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2009
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 11 (2009) |
| Datensatznummer |
250024460
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Much attention is spent today to the reconstruction of past climates, increasing the amount and quality of (multi-)proxy-reconstructions from different regions. However, these reconstructions by means of statistical models usually assume a constant spatiotemporal relationship between the predictor variables and the predictands. Due to the complex nature of externally and internally forced climate variability on different time scales, reasoning arises to question and probably quantify the assumption about stationarity particularly for longer time scales. An advantage of the Baltic region is the high amount of quality-checked and long historical measurements (e.g. SLP, station temperature, gauge and sea-ice data) which make it possible to study the relationship between the large-scale forcing by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the near-surface climate of the Baltic Sea catchment area in more detail.
In a first step of our approach we relate the NAO to the near-surface climate of the Baltic region on monthly and seasonal basis using running correlation analysis on decadal time scales. Results indicate that the circulation-climate-relationship shows large amounts of non-stationarities. For example, the running correlations between the NAO and station temperatures over the Baltic Sea catchment area in winter (DJF) vary in a range between 0.45
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