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Titel |
Regional Climate Change Hotspots over Africa |
VerfasserIn |
U. Anber, A. Zakey, M. Abd el Wahab |
Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2009
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Medientyp |
Artikel
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Sprache |
Englisch
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Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 11 (2009) |
Datensatznummer |
250024250
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Zusammenfassung |
Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI), is developed based on regional mean precipitation
change, mean surface air temperature change, and change in precipitation and temperature
interannual variability. The RCCI is a comparative index designed to identify the most
responsive regions to climate change, or Hot- Spots. The RCCI is calculated for Seven
land regions over North Africa and Arabian region from the latest set of climate
change projections by 14 global climates for the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC emission
scenarios.
The concept of climate change can be approaches from the viewpoint of vulnerability or
from that of climate response. In the former case a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region for
which potential climate change impacts on the environment or different activity sectors can
be particularly pronounced. In the other case, a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region whose
climate is especially responsive to global change. In particular, the characterization of climate
change response-based Hot-Spot can provide key information to identify and investigate
climate change Hot-Spots based on results from multi-model ensemble of climate change
simulations performed by modeling groups from around the world as contributions
to the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC).
A Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) is defined based on four variables: change in
regional mean surface air temperature relative to the global average temperature change ( or
Regional Warming Amplification Factor, RWAF ), change in mean regional precipitation (ÎP
% , of present day value ), change in regional surface air temperature interannual variability
(ÎÏT % ,of present day value), change in regional precipitation interannual variability
(ÎÏP % ,of present day value ). In the definition of the RCCI it is important to
include quantities other than mean change because often mean changes are not
the only important factors for specific impacts. We thus also include inter annual
variability, which is critical for many activity sectors, such as agriculture and water
management. The RCCI is calculated for the above mentioned set of global climate change
simulations and is inter compared across regions to identify climate change, Hot- Spots,
that is regions with the largest values of RCCI. It is important to stress that, as
will be seen, the RCCI is a comparative index, that is a small RCCI value does not
imply a small absolute change, but only a small climate response compared to other
regions.
The models used are:
CCMA-3-T47
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-MK3
GFDL-CM2-0
GISS-ER
INMCM3
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3-2M
MIUB-ECHO-G
MPI-ECHAM5
MRI-CGCM2
NCAR-CCSM3
NCAR-PCM1
UKMO-HADCM3 |
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