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| Titel |
BET_VH: a new software code for long-term Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment |
| VerfasserIn |
W. Marzocchi, L. Sandri, J. Selva |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2009
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 11 (2009) |
| Datensatznummer |
250023609
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| Zusammenfassung |
| BET_VH (Bayesian Event Tree for Volcanic Hazard) is a new software package assessing
long-term probabilities of different hazardous phenomena produced by volcanic eruptions,
and their impact on surrounding territory. In particular, BET_VH is able to compute the
probability of occurrence of a specific phenomenon, and the probability that the consequent
products of such phenomenon will reach a particular area overcoming a selected threshold.
This can be made for a given scenario (an eruption with a specific vent location and
size) or for a weighted combination of different possible scenarios. The user of
the code can handle any possible volcanic threats, such as tephra fall, lava flows,
pyroclastic flows, lahars, etc. Besides probability estimations, the code provides also a
formal estimation of the associated uncertainties that account for the quality of
prior information (for instance, numerical models, expert opinions, etc...), and the
number of past data available, through Bayesian inference. The code requires in input
any kind of relevant information available, ranging from numerical models, field
observations, expert opinion, eruption catalog, and so on. The output consists of a set of
probability maps in JPG, and GoogleEarth format (with uncertainty), that cover a vast
range of possible end-user demands. A tutorial example from Campi Flegrei will be
presented. |
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