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| Titel |
Multi-model skill of ENSO forecasts in ENSEMBLES stream 2 |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Weisheimer, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, T. N. Palmer |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2009
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 11 (2009) |
| Datensatznummer |
250023369
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| Zusammenfassung |
| A new set of multi-model seasonal and annual ensemble forecasts from five state-of-the-art coupled GCMs has recently been generated within the EU ENSEMBLES project. This contribution will present a summary of the systematic model biases and probabilistic forecast skill in the tropical Pacific for the individual model ensembles as well as for combinations of them. The so-called ENSEMBLES stream 2 simulations comprise re-forecasts over the period 1960 - 2005 for lead times of 7 to 14 months with four start times per year and are, for each model, ensembles of 9 members created by initial perturbations to the surface wind, SSTs and atmospheric fields. The relatively long re-forecast period allows us to estimate decadal variations in forecast skill. Progress beyond a previous multi-model ensemble (DEMETER) will be assessed. |
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