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| Titel |
Decadal prediction with the ECMWF coupled system |
| VerfasserIn |
F. J. Doblas-Reyes, A. Weisheimer, T. N. Palmer |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2009
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 11 (2009) |
| Datensatznummer |
250023306
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| Zusammenfassung |
| A set of ten three-member ensemble ten-year integrations covering the period 1960-2005 have been carried out with the ECMWF coupled forecast system. This system is similar to that used for climate prediction at much shorter time scales (monthly and seasonal) and uses climatological sea ice. We will illustrate how well the hindcasts match the observed global mean temperature and the regions for which significantly positive forecast quality has been found. The forecast quality of this system compares well with the quality of existing decadal forecast systems. Although some skill of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature has been detected that suggests a degree of predictability of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, ocean verification is precluded by the lack of consensus between the different ocean analyses currently available. |
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