| Geological medium is an open dynamical system, which is artificially and naturally
influenced on different scale levels, which change it’s state and which lead to a complicated
many ranked hierarchic evolution. That is a topic of the synergetic theory (or science of self
organization). The idea of physical meso mechanics which was elaborated by Russian
academician Panin V.E., which includes the synergetic approach, is a constructive method for
research of the state of heterogenic materials. That result had been obtained for specimens of
different materials. In our investigations of time-dependent geological medium in the
frame of natural experiments in real rock massive, which are hard man-caused
influenced it had been showed, that the dynamics of the state can be revealed by using
synergetic approach for hierarchic media. The important role for research of dynamic
geological systems play the use of active and passive geophysical monitoring, which
can be achieved with use of electromagnetic and seismic fields. As it had been
showed by our experience the change of the system on the researched space bases
and times can be revealed by parameters, linked with peculiarities of the medium
of the second and higher rank. Thus the research of the state dynamics and the
events of self organization we can provide with geophysical methods, oriented on
the many ranked hierarchic time-dependent model of the medium. For fields of
plastic deformation and stresses it had been considered a system of differential
equations. The developing theory of modelling and interpretation of geophysical
monitoring data must be active guided by the mathematical methods of nonlinear
dynamics and control. The developing of that direction can allow us to forecast
and prevent catastrophic man-made events (rock bursts). We had elaborated a new
approach of forecasting such events using the method of constructing phase portraits
using the data of electromagnetic monitoring and detailed seismological catalogue. |