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| Titel |
Western Europe is warming much faster than expected |
| VerfasserIn |
G. J. van Oldenborgh, S. S. Drijfhout, A. P. van Ulden, R. Haarsma, C. Severijns, W. Hazeleger, H. Dijkstra |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2009
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 11 (2009) |
| Datensatznummer |
250021496
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The warming trend of the last decades is now so strong that it is discernible in
local temperature observations. This opens the possibility to compare the trend to
the warming predicted by climate models, which up to now could not be verified
directly to observations on a local scale, because the signal-to-noise ratio was too low.
The observed temperature trend in western Europe over the last decades appears
much stronger than simulated by the CMIP3 ensemble, a UKMO perturbed physics
ensembles, and ENSEMBLES RCM ensembles. The differences between the observed
trends and the ones simulated by these four multi-model ensembles are very unlikely
due to random fluctuations, either in fast weather processes or in decadal climate
fluctuations.
In winter and spring, changes in atmospheric circulation are important; in spring and
summer changes in soil moisture and cloud cover. A misrepresentation of the North Atlantic
Current affects trends along the coast. Many of these processes continue to affect trends in
projections for the 21st century. This implies that climate predictions for western Europe that
are based on these models probably underestimate the effects of anthropogenic climate
change. |
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