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| Titel |
Simulation of the impact of climate change on regional air quality |
| VerfasserIn |
R. Forkel, R. Knoche |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2009
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 11 (2009) |
| Datensatznummer |
250021366
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In order to investigate possible effects of global climate change on regional distributions of
photochemical compounds in Europe and in particular in Southern Germany nested regional
climate-chemistry simulations with a horizontal resolution of 60 km and of 20 km were
performed with theonline coupled meteorology-chemistry model MCCM. MCCM is based
on the NCAR/Penn State University mesoscale meteorological model MM5, which was
coupled with detailed gas phase chemistry modules, a modal aerosol module, a photolysis
model, and a biogenic emission module. Meteorological boundary conditions for the first
nesting step were provided by a long term simulation of the global climate model
ECHAM4.
For Southern Germany an increase of the mean summertime temperature by almost 2
degrees and a reduction in cloudiness by about 10 % was found between the 90ths
of the previous century and the 30ths of this century which results in increased
photolysis and higher emissions of biogenic hydrocarbons. Under the assumption of
unchanged anthropogenic emissions the simulated increase of the mean daily ozone
maximum in Southern Germany ranges between 2 and 6 ppb, which corresponds to an
increase by about 10 %. As a consequence the number of days when the target
value of 120 μg m-3 for the 8 hour average of the ozone concentration is exceeded
increases by 5 to 12 days per year and the number of days with very high ozone
concentrations increases by a factor of four. Due to the complex topography and due to the
heterogeneous distribution of precursor emissions all parameters show pronounced regional
patterns.
First results for the region of central Mexico show a similar increase in near surface
ozone, although the effect of changes in cloudiness is different than in Central Europe. |
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