 |
| Titel |
Forecast of Relativistic Electron Flux at Geosynchronous Orbit With and Without Solar Wind Input |
| VerfasserIn |
X. Li, D. Turner |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2009
|
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 11 (2009) |
| Datensatznummer |
250021134
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| To a large extent, the solar wind controls magnetospheric
dynamics. Therefore measurements of the solar wind upstream of
the Earth can be used to forecast the characteristic variations
of the magnetosphere. We have developed models to forecast
the variations of radiation belt electron fluxes and the Dst
index based on available solar wind measurements. We have also
developed a model to forecast the MeV electrons at geosynchronous
orbit without solar wind input. The model is based on the strong
correlation between the behavior of low-energy (tens to hundreds of keV)
and high-energy (>1 MeV) electron fluxes measured at geosynchronous orbit.
The time delay between similar features in low- and high-energy electron
fluxes makes it possible to forecast the high-energy electron flux
days in advance, based on the current and previous days' fluxes of low-
and high-energy electrons. Parameters in the model are set by optimizing
prediction efficiency (PE) for the years 1995-1996, and the optimized
PE for these 2 years is 0.81. The model is run for more than one full
solar cycle (1995-2006). Model results are comparable to our previous
model results where solar wind input is needed. When the two models are
combined, the resulting model performs better overall than each does individually. |
|
|
|
|
|
|