 |
| Titel |
Bifurcation analysis of geophysical time series |
| VerfasserIn |
V. Livina, F. Kwasniok, T. Lenton |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2009
|
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 11 (2009) |
| Datensatznummer |
250020479
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| We propose a general synthetic framework, combining analytical and experimental techniques, for studying climatic bifurcations and transitions by means of the time series analysis. The method employs three major techniques: (i) derivation of potential from time series using unscented Kalman Filter (UKF); (ii) studying possible bifurcations and transitions of the obtained potential; (iii) projection of the time series according to the estimated perturbation. The method is tested on artificial data and then applied to observed records, in particular, a Greenland temperature proxy.
We correctly detect potential changes in artificial series with a varied number of potential wells. In the case of Greenland data, the technique detects a change of the number of system states from two to one (double-well potential transforming into single-well) at about 20 kyr BP. |
|
|
|
|
|
|