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| Titel |
Lessons learned on extreme hydrological events from MAP D-PHASE |
| VerfasserIn |
M. W. Rotach, M. Arpagaus, M. Dorninger, C. Hegg, A. Montani, R. Ranzi |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2009
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 11 (2009) |
| Datensatznummer |
250020062
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| Zusammenfassung |
| MAP D-PHASE is a Forecast Demonstration Project of the World Weather Research
Programme (WWRP). Its goal is to demonstrate the ability of reliably and operationally
forecasting orographically influenced (determined) precipitation in the Alps and, especially,
its consequences on the distribution of run-off characteristics. During the D-PHASE
Operations Period (DOP) from June to November 2007, an end-to-end forecasting system
was operated, and a vast amount of data is currently being analysed and evaluated. The
forecasting system’s centre piece was a Visualization Platform, on which equally displayed
warnings from some 30 atmospheric and 7 hydrological models (deterministic and
probabilistic), corresponding model fields, meteograms, nowcasting information,
and end user communication was made available, to forecasters, users, and end
users.
The ‘P’ in D-PHASE stands for ‘probabilistic’ and thus an emphasis was put during this
project on ensemble prediction systems (D-PHASE as such, with its many different models
and sources of information, being a multi-facet ensemble). On the one hand the present
contribution will address the lessons learned with respect to scientific/technical questions: the
gain in forecast quality (and thus reliability) through re-forecasting in an ensemble system;
verification of hydrological ensemble model systems; radar ensemble to drive a hydrological
model in a small catchment. On the other hand the consequences of probabilistic forecasts for
the end users, and especially with respect to hydrological applications, will be discussed. |
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