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| Titel |
Refining future climate projections using uncertain climate data of the last millennium |
| VerfasserIn |
Y. H. Yamazaki, M. R. Allen, C. Huntingford, D. J. Frame, D. C. Frank |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2009
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 11 (2009) |
| Datensatznummer |
250019909
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We report a modelling analysis of a proxy-based climate reconstruction over the last
millennium and its implication for future climate projections. A large number of simple
energy balance models with different internal parameters were driven by a range of
reconstructed climate forcings to produce a variety of climate change over the last
millennium. For each model run, we used a proxy-based temperature reconstruction
and recent instrumental observations to assign similarity scores for both pre- and
post-instrumental periods. In addition, we quantitatively explored uncertainties in the
models’ internal parameters, external forcings, temperature reconstruction, and recent
instrumental observations. The overall score was then calculated by combining the
similarity score and the uncertainty scores for each simulation, and projected onto the
future.
Our results suggest that the proxy-based climate reconstruction imposes a strong extra
constraint on the conventional climate projection that is solely based on instrumental
observations. |
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