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| Titel |
A framework for evaluating regional hydrologic sensitivity to climate change using archetypal watershed modeling |
| VerfasserIn |
S. R. Lopez, T. S. Hogue, E. D. Stein |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 17, no. 8 ; Nr. 17, no. 8 (2013-08-01), S.3077-3094 |
| Datensatznummer |
250018954
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-17-3077-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The current study focuses on the development of a regional framework to
evaluate hydrologic and sediment sensitivity, at various stages of urban
development, due to predicted future climate variability. We develop archetypal watersheds, which are regional representations of observed
physiographic features (i.e., geomorphology, land cover patterns, etc.) with
a synthetic basin size and reach network. Each of the three regional
archetypes (urban, vegetated and mixed urban/vegetated land covers)
simulates satisfactory regional hydrologic and sediment behavior compared to
historical observations prior to a climate sensitivity analysis. Climate
scenarios considered a range of increasing temperatures, as estimated by the
IPCC, and precipitation variability based on historical observations and
expectations. Archetypal watersheds are modeled using the Environmental
Protection Agency's Hydrologic Simulation Program–Fortran model (EPA HSPF)
and relative changes to streamflow and sediment flux are evaluated. Results
indicate that the variability and extent of vegetation play a key role in
watershed sensitivity to predicted climate change. Temperature increase
alone causes a decrease in annual flow and an increase in sediment flux
within the vegetated archetypal watershed only, and these effects are
partially mitigated by the presence of impervious surfaces within the urban
and mixed archetypal watersheds. Depending on the extent of precipitation
variability, urban and moderately urban systems can expect the largest
alteration in flow regimes where high-flow events increase in frequency and
magnitude. As a result, enhanced wash-off of suspended sediments from
available pervious surfaces is expected. |
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