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| Titel |
A bivariate return period based on copulas for hydrologic dam design: accounting for reservoir routing in risk estimation |
| VerfasserIn |
A. I. Requena, L. Mediero, L. Garrote |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 17, no. 8 ; Nr. 17, no. 8 (2013-08-01), S.3023-3038 |
| Datensatznummer |
250018951
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-17-3023-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| A multivariate analysis on flood variables is needed to design some
hydraulic structures like dams, as the complexity of the routing process in
a reservoir requires a representation of the full hydrograph. In this work,
a bivariate copula model was used to obtain the bivariate joint distribution
of flood peak and volume, in order to know the probability of occurrence of
a given inflow hydrograph. However, the risk of dam overtopping is given by
the maximum water elevation reached during the routing process, which
depends on the hydrograph variables, the reservoir volume and the spillway
crest length. Consequently, an additional bivariate return period, the so-called
routed return period, was defined in terms of risk of dam overtopping
based on this maximum water elevation obtained after routing the inflow
hydrographs. The theoretical return periods, which give the probability of
occurrence of a hydrograph prior to accounting for the reservoir routing,
were compared with the routed return period, as in both cases hydrographs
with the same probability will draw a curve in the peak-volume space. The
procedure was applied to the case study of the Santillana reservoir in
Spain. Different reservoir volumes and spillway lengths were considered to
investigate the influence of the dam and reservoir characteristics on the
results. The methodology improves the estimation of the Design Flood
Hydrograph and can be applied to assess the risk of dam overtopping. |
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