 |
| Titel |
A global water scarcity assessment under Shared Socio-economic Pathways – Part 2: Water availability and scarcity |
| VerfasserIn |
N. Hanasaki, S. Fujimori, T. Yamamoto, S. Yoshikawa, Y. Masaki, Y. Hijioka, M. Kainuma, Y. Kanamori, T. Masui, K. Takahashi, S. Kanae |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1027-5606
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 17, no. 7 ; Nr. 17, no. 7 (2013-07-01), S.2393-2413 |
| Datensatznummer |
250018912
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-17-2393-2013.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| A global water scarcity assessment for the 21st century was conducted under
the latest socio-economic scenario for global change studies, namely Shared
Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). SSPs depict five global situations with
substantially different socio-economic conditions. In the accompanying paper,
a water use scenario compatible with the SSPs was developed. This scenario
considers not only quantitative socio-economic factors such as population and
electricity production but also qualitative ones such as the degree of
technological change and overall environmental consciousness. In this paper,
water availability and water scarcity were assessed using a global
hydrological model called H08. H08 simulates both the natural water cycle and
major human activities such as water abstraction and reservoir operation. It
simulates water availability and use at daily time intervals at a spatial
resolution of 0.5° × 0.5°. A series of global
hydrological simulations were conducted under the SSPs, taking into account
different climate policy options and the results of climate models. Water
scarcity was assessed using an index termed the Cumulative Abstraction to
Demand ratio, which is expressed as the accumulation of daily water
abstraction from a river divided by the daily consumption-based potential
water demand. This index can be used to express whether renewable water
resources are available from rivers when required. The results suggested that
by 2071–2100 the population living under severely water-stressed conditions
for SSP1-5 will reach 2588–2793 × 106 (39–42% of total
population), 3966–4298 × 106 (46–50%),
5334–5643 × 106 (52–55%), 3427–3786 × 106
(40–45%), 3164–3379 × 106 (46–49%)
respectively, if climate policies are not
adopted. Even in SSP1 (the scenario with least change in water use and
climate) global water scarcity increases considerably, as compared to the
present-day. This is mainly due to the growth in population and economic
activity in developing countries, and partly due to hydrological changes
induced by global warming. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|