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| Titel |
A global water scarcity assessment under Shared Socio-economic Pathways – Part 1: Water use |
| VerfasserIn |
N. Hanasaki, S. Fujimori, T. Yamamoto, S. Yoshikawa, Y. Masaki, Y. Hijioka, M. Kainuma, Y. Kanamori, T. Masui, K. Takahashi, S. Kanae |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 17, no. 7 ; Nr. 17, no. 7 (2013-07-01), S.2375-2391 |
| Datensatznummer |
250018911
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-17-2375-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| A novel global water scarcity assessment for the 21st century is
presented in a two-part paper. In this first paper, water use scenarios are
presented for the latest global hydrological models. The scenarios are
compatible with the socio-economic scenarios of the Shared Socio-economic
Pathways (SSPs), which are a part of the latest set of scenarios on global
change developed by the integrated assessment, the IAV (climate change
impact, adaptation, and vulnerability assessment), and the climate modeling
community. The SSPs depict five global situations based on substantially
different socio-economic conditions during the 21st century. Water use
scenarios were developed to reflect not only quantitative socio-economic
factors, such as population and electricity production, but also key
qualitative concepts such as the degree of technological change and overall
environmental consciousness. Each scenario consists of five factors:
irrigated area, crop intensity, irrigation efficiency, and withdrawal-based
potential industrial and municipal water demands. The first three factors
are used to estimate the potential irrigation water demand. All factors were
developed using simple models based on a literature review and analysis of
historical records. The factors are grid-based at a spatial resolution of
0.5° × 0.5° and cover the whole 21st
century in five-year intervals. Each factor shows wide variation among the
different global situations depicted: the irrigated area in 2085 varies
between 2.7 × 106 and 4.5 × 106 km2,
withdrawal-based potential industrial water demand between 246 and 1714 km3 yr−1,
and municipal water between 573 and 1280 km3 yr−1. The water use
scenarios can be used for global water scarcity
assessments that identify the regions vulnerable to water scarcity and
analyze the timing and magnitude of scarcity conditions. |
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