 |
| Titel |
Potential effects of climate change on inundation patterns in the Amazon Basin |
| VerfasserIn |
F. Langerwisch, S. Rost, D. Gerten, B. Poulter, A. Rammig, W. Cramer |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1027-5606
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 17, no. 6 ; Nr. 17, no. 6 (2013-06-20), S.2247-2262 |
| Datensatznummer |
250018903
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-17-2247-2013.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| Floodplain forests, namely the Várzea and Igapó, cover an area of
more than 97 000 km2. A key factor for their function and diversity
is annual flooding. Increasing air temperature and higher precipitation
variability caused by climate change are expected to shift the flooding
regime during this century, and thereby impact floodplain ecosystems, their
biodiversity and riverine ecosystem services. To assess the effects of
climate change on the flooding regime, we use the Dynamic Global Vegetation
and Hydrology Model LPJmL, enhanced by a scheme that realistically simulates
monthly flooded area. Simulation results of discharge and inundation under
contemporary conditions compare well against site-level measurements and
observations. The changes of calculated inundation duration and area under
climate change projections from 24 IPCC AR4 climate models differ regionally
towards the end of the 21st century. In all, 70% of the 24 climate
projections agree on an increase of flooded area in about one third of the
basin. Inundation duration increases dramatically by on average three months
in western and around one month in eastern Amazonia. The time of high- and
low-water peak shifts by up to three months. Additionally, we find a
decrease in the number of extremely dry years and in the probability of the
occurrence of three consecutive extremely dry years. The total number of
extremely wet years does not change drastically but the probability of three
consecutive extremely wet years decreases by up to 30% in the east and
increases by up to 25% in the west. These changes implicate significant
shifts in regional vegetation and climate, and will dramatically alter
carbon and water cycles. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|