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| Titel |
A framework for global river flood risk assessments |
| VerfasserIn |
H. C. Winsemius, L. P. H. Beek, B. Jongman, P. J. Ward, A. Bouwman |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 17, no. 5 ; Nr. 17, no. 5 (2013-05-21), S.1871-1892 |
| Datensatznummer |
250018877
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-17-1871-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks
in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for
global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in
current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and
socio-economic changes. The framework's goal is to establish flood hazard and
impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination
into a risk estimate, which can be used for strategic global flood risk
assessments. The framework estimates hazard at a resolution of
~ 1 km2 using global forcing datasets of the current (or in
scenario mode, future) climate, a global hydrological model, a global
flood-routing model, and more importantly, an inundation downscaling routine.
The second component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact
models at the same resolution (e.g. damage, affected GDP, and affected
population) to establish indicators for flood risk (e.g. annual expected
damage, affected GDP, and affected population). The framework has been
applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which includes an
optional global flood routing model DynRout, combined with scenarios from the
Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). We performed
downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution
with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on Bangladesh as a first case study
application area. We demonstrate the risk assessment approach in Bangladesh
based on GDP per capita data, population, and land use maps for 2010 and
2050. Validation of the hazard estimates has been performed using the
Dartmouth Flood Observatory database. This was done by comparing a
high return period flood with the maximum observed extent, as well as
by comparing a time series of a single event with Dartmouth imagery of the
event. Validation of modelled damage estimates was performed using observed
damage estimates from the EM-DAT database and World Bank sources. We discuss
and show sensitivities of the estimated risks with regard to the use of
different climate input sets, decisions made in the downscaling algorithm,
and different approaches to establish impact models. |
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