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| Titel |
Extreme winds over Europe in the ENSEMBLES regional climate models |
| VerfasserIn |
S. D. Outten, I. Esau |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 13, no. 10 ; Nr. 13, no. 10 (2013-05-22), S.5163-5172 |
| Datensatznummer |
250018663
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-13-5163-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Extreme winds cause vast amounts of damage every year and represent a major
concern for numerous industries including construction, afforestation, wind
energy and many others. Under a changing climate, the intensity and
frequency of extreme events are expected to change, and accurate projections
of these changes will be invaluable to decision makers and society as a
whole. This work examines four regional climate model downscalings over
Europe following the SRES A1B scenario from the "ENSEMBLE-based Predictions
of Climate Changes and their Impacts" project (ENSEMBLES). It investigates
the projected changes in the 50 yr return wind speeds and the associated
uncertainties. This is accomplished by employing the peaks-over-threshold
method with the use of the generalised Pareto distribution. The models show
that, for much of Europe, the 50 yr return wind is projected to change by
less than 2 m s−1, while the uncertainties associated with the
statistical estimates are larger than this. In keeping with previous works
in this field, the largest source of uncertainty is found to be the
inter-model spread, with some locations showing differences in the 50 yr
return wind of over 20 m s−1 between two different downscalings. |
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