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| Titel |
Tropospheric ozone changes, radiative forcing and attribution to emissions in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) |
| VerfasserIn |
D. S. Stevenson, P. J. Young, V. Naik, J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell  , A. Voulgarakis, R. B. Skeie, S. B. Dalsøren, G. Myhre, T. K. Berntsen, G. A. Folberth, S. T. Rumbold, W. J. Collins, I. A. MacKenzie, R. M. Doherty, G. Zeng, T. P. C. Noije, A. Strunk, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, D. A. Plummer, S. A. Strode, L. Horowitz, Y. H. Lee, S. Szopa, K. Sudo, T. Nagashima, B. Josse, I. Cionni, M. Righi, V. Eyring, A. Conley, K. W. Bowman, O. Wild, A. Archibald |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 13, no. 6 ; Nr. 13, no. 6 (2013-03-15), S.3063-3085 |
| Datensatznummer |
250018518
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-13-3063-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Ozone (O3) from 17 atmospheric chemistry models taking part in the
Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) has
been used to calculate tropospheric ozone radiative forcings (RFs). All
models applied a common set of anthropogenic emissions, which are better
constrained for the present-day than the past. Future anthropogenic
emissions follow the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)
scenarios, which define a relatively narrow range of possible air pollution
emissions. We calculate a value for the pre-industrial (1750) to present-day
(2010) tropospheric ozone RF of 410 mW m−2. The model range of
pre-industrial to present-day changes in O3 produces a spread (±1
standard deviation) in RFs of ±17%. Three different radiation
schemes were used – we find differences in RFs between schemes (for the
same ozone fields) of ±10%. Applying two different tropopause
definitions gives differences in RFs of ±3%. Given additional
(unquantified) uncertainties associated with emissions, climate-chemistry
interactions and land-use change, we estimate an overall uncertainty of
±30% for the tropospheric ozone RF. Experiments carried out by a
subset of six models attribute tropospheric ozone RF to increased emissions
of methane (44±12%), nitrogen oxides (31 ± 9%), carbon
monoxide (15 ± 3%) and non-methane volatile organic compounds
(9 ± 2%); earlier studies attributed more of the tropospheric ozone
RF to methane and less to nitrogen oxides. Normalising RFs to changes in
tropospheric column ozone, we find a global mean normalised RF of 42
mW m−2 DU−1, a value similar to previous work. Using normalised RFs
and future tropospheric column ozone projections we calculate future
tropospheric ozone RFs (mW m−2; relative to 1750) for the four future
scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) of 350, 420, 370 and 460 (in
2030), and 200, 300, 280 and 600 (in 2100). Models show some coherent
responses of ozone to climate change: decreases in the tropical lower
troposphere, associated with increases in water vapour; and increases in the
sub-tropical to mid-latitude upper troposphere, associated with increases in
lightning and stratosphere-to-troposphere transport. Climate change has
relatively small impacts on global mean tropospheric ozone RF. |
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