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| Titel |
Evaluation of preindustrial to present-day black carbon and its albedo forcing from Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) |
| VerfasserIn |
Y. H. Lee, J.-F. Lamarque, M. G. Flanner, C. Jiao, D. T. Shindell  , T. Berntsen, M. M. Bisiaux, J. Cao, W. J. Collins, M. Curran, R. Edwards, G. Faluvegi, S. Ghan, L. W. Horowitz, J. R. McConnell, J. Ming, G. Myhre, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, S. T. Rumbold, R. B. Skeie, K. Sudo, T. Takemura, F. Thevenon, B. Xu, J.-H. Yoon |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 13, no. 5 ; Nr. 13, no. 5 (2013-03-05), S.2607-2634 |
| Datensatznummer |
250018474
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-13-2607-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
As part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison
Project (ACCMIP), we evaluate the historical black carbon (BC) aerosols
simulated by 8 ACCMIP models against observations including 12 ice core
records, long-term surface mass concentrations, and recent Arctic BC
snowpack measurements. We also estimate BC albedo forcing by performing
additional simulations using offline models with prescribed meteorology from
1996–2000. We evaluate the vertical profile of BC snow concentrations from
these offline simulations using the recent BC snowpack measurements.
Despite using the same BC emissions, the global BC burden differs by
approximately a factor of 3 among models due to differences in aerosol
removal parameterizations and simulated meteorology: 34 Gg to 103 Gg in 1850
and 82 Gg to 315 Gg in 2000. However, the global BC burden from
preindustrial to present-day increases by 2.5–3 times with little variation
among models, roughly matching the 2.5-fold increase in total BC emissions
during the same period. We find a large divergence among models at both
Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) high latitude regions
for BC burden and at SH high latitude regions for deposition fluxes. The
ACCMIP simulations match the observed BC surface mass concentrations well in
Europe and North America except at Ispra. However, the models fail to
predict the Arctic BC seasonality due to severe underestimations during
winter and spring. The simulated vertically resolved BC snow concentrations
are, on average, within a factor of 2–3 of the BC snowpack measurements
except for Greenland and the Arctic Ocean.
For the ice core evaluation, models tend to adequately capture both the
observed temporal trends and the magnitudes at Greenland sites. However,
models fail to predict the decreasing trend of BC depositions/ice core
concentrations from the 1950s to the 1970s in most Tibetan Plateau ice
cores. The distinct temporal trend at the Tibetan Plateau ice cores
indicates a strong influence from Western Europe, but the modeled BC
increases in that period are consistent with the emission changes in Eastern
Europe, the Middle East, South and East Asia. At the Alps site, the
simulated BC suggests a strong influence from Europe, which agrees with the
Alps ice core observations. At Zuoqiupu on the Tibetan Plateau, models
successfully simulate the higher BC concentrations observed during the
non-monsoon season compared to the monsoon season but overpredict BC in both
seasons. Despite a large divergence in BC deposition at two Antarctic ice
core sites, some models with a BC lifetime of less than 7 days are able to
capture the observed concentrations.
In 2000 relative to 1850, globally and annually averaged BC surface albedo
forcing from the offline simulations ranges from 0.014 to 0.019 W m−2
among the ACCMIP models. Comparing offline and online BC albedo forcings
computed by some of the same models, we find that the global annual mean can
vary by up to a factor of two because of different aerosol models or
different BC-snow parameterizations and snow cover. The spatial
distributions of the offline BC albedo forcing in 2000 show especially high
BC forcing (i.e., over 0.1 W m−2) over Manchuria, Karakoram, and most
of the Former USSR. Models predict the highest global annual mean BC forcing
in 1980 rather than 2000, mostly driven by the high fossil fuel and biofuel
emissions in the Former USSR in 1980. |
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