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| Titel |
Analysis of extreme summers and prior late winter/spring conditions in central Europe |
| VerfasserIn |
C. Träger-Chatterjee, R. W. Müller, J. Bendix |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 13, no. 5 ; Nr. 13, no. 5 (2013-05-16), S.1243-1257 |
| Datensatznummer |
250018445
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-13-1243-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
Drought and heat waves during summer in mid-latitudes are a serious threat to
human health and agriculture and have negative impacts on the infrastructure,
such as problems in energy supply. The appearance of such extreme events is
expected to increase with the progress of global warming. A better
understanding of the development of extremely hot and dry summers and the
identification of possible precursors could help improve existing seasonal
forecasts in this regard, and could possibly lead to the development of early
warning methods.
The development of extremely hot and dry summer seasons in central Europe is
attributed to a combined effect of the dominance of anticyclonic weather
regimes and soil moisture–atmosphere interactions. The atmospheric
circulation largely determines the amount of solar irradiation and the amount
of precipitation in an area. These two variables are themselves major factors
controlling the soil moisture. Thus, solar irradiation and precipitation are
used as proxies to analyse extreme sunny and dry late winter/spring and summer
seasons for the period 1958–2011 in Germany and adjacent areas.
For this purpose, solar irradiation data from the European Center for Medium Range
Weather Forecast 40-yr and interim re-analysis dataset, as well as remote
sensing data are used. Precipitation data are taken from the Global
Precipitation Climatology Project. To analyse the atmospheric circulation
geopotential data at 850 hPa are also taken from the European Center for Medium
Range Weather Forecast 40-yr and interim re-analysis datasets.
For the years in which extreme summers in terms of high solar irradiation and
low precipitation are identified, the previous late winter/spring conditions
of solar irradiation and precipitation in Germany and adjacent areas are
analysed. Results show that if the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is
not very intensely developed, extremely high solar irradiation amounts,
together with extremely low precipitation amounts during late winter/spring,
might serve as precursor of extremely sunny and dry summer months to be
expected. |
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