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Titel |
Time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and its application to Hualien City, Taiwan |
VerfasserIn |
C.-H. Chan, Y.-M. Wu, C.-T. Cheng, P.-S. Lin, Y.-C. Wu |
Medientyp |
Artikel
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Sprache |
Englisch
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ISSN |
1561-8633
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Digitales Dokument |
URL |
Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 13, no. 5 ; Nr. 13, no. 5 (2013-05-03), S.1143-1158 |
Datensatznummer |
250018438
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Publikation (Nr.) |
copernicus.org/nhess-13-1143-2013.pdf |
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Zusammenfassung |
Here, we propose a time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment
and apply it to Hualien City, Taiwan. A declustering catalog from 1940 to
2005 was used to build up a long-term seismicity rate model using a
smoothing Kernel function. We also evaluated short-term seismicity rate
perturbations according to the rate-and-state friction model, and the
Coulomb stress changes imparted by earthquakes from 2006 to 2010. We
assessed both long-term and short-term probabilistic seismic hazards by
considering ground motion prediction equations for crustal and subduction
earthquakes. The long-term seismic hazard in Hualien City gave a PGA (peak ground acceleration)
of 0.46 g for the 2.1‰ annual exceedance probability. The result
is similar to the levels determined in previous studies. Seismic hazards
were significantly elevated following the 2007 ML =5.8 earthquake that
occurred approximately 10 km from Hualien City. This work presents an
assessment of a suitable mechanism for time-dependent probabilistic seismic
hazard determinations using an updated earthquake catalog. Using minor model
assumptions, our approach provides a suitable basis for rapid re-evaluations
and will benefit decision-makers and public officials regarding seismic
hazard mitigation. |
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