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Titel |
Hydro-morphologic setting of the Samborombón Bay (Argentina) at the end of the 21st century |
VerfasserIn |
L. Tosi, E. E. Kruse, F. Braga, E. S. Carol, S. C. Carretero, J. L. Pousa, F. Rizzetto, P. Teatini |
Medientyp |
Artikel
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Sprache |
Englisch
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ISSN |
1561-8633
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Digitales Dokument |
URL |
Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 13, no. 3 ; Nr. 13, no. 3 (2013-03-04), S.523-534 |
Datensatznummer |
250018376
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Publikation (Nr.) |
copernicus.org/nhess-13-523-2013.pdf |
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Zusammenfassung |
We report on the hydrologic and morphologic setting of the Samborombón
Bay, Argentina, which is expected at the end of the 21st century as a
consequence of possible scenarios of relative sea level rise (RSLR). The
geomorphological analysis of the Samborombón coastland points out only
minor changes occurred over the last 40 yr. The modifications are mainly
related to the construction of canals to enhance the floodplain drainage. A
digital elevation model (DEM) obtained by the Shuttle Radar Topography
Mission (SRTM) data archive, ad hoc calibrated/validated for the study area,
highlights that about 3000 km2 of coastal plain present a
morphological setting at high risk of sea flooding. The analysis of sea
level and storm surge events recorded from 1905 to 2010 in Buenos Aires
provides the RSLR rate and the return period of extreme floods. In addition,
vertical land movements (VLM) measured by the permanent GPS stations of
Buenos Aires and La Plata allow for the quantification of the eustatic component of the
RSLR and estimating a plausible RSLR rate in the Samborombón Bay. Taking
into account possible RSLR scenarios at the end of 2100 as resulting from
the statistical analysis of (i) tide gauge and GPS time series and (ii) Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions, the potential
effect of the increased sea level on the Samborombón coastland is
simulated. The results show that the combined rise of sea levels, surficial
waters and groundwater will lead to a new morpho-hydrologic setting of the
coastal area, especially in the low-lying southern sector. Here, a coastline
retreat up to 40 km is expected, with temporary submersion up to 4000 km2 during storm surges. |
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