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| Titel |
Climate of the last millennium: ensemble consistency of simulations and reconstructions |
| VerfasserIn |
O. Bothe, J. H. Jungclaus, D. Zanchettin, E. Zorita |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1814-9324
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Climate of the Past ; 9, no. 3 ; Nr. 9, no. 3 (2013-05-16), S.1089-1110 |
| Datensatznummer |
250018055
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/cp-9-1089-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
Are simulations and reconstructions of past climate and its variability
consistent with each other? We assess the consistency of simulations and
reconstructions for the climate of the last millennium under the paradigm of
a statistically indistinguishable ensemble. In this type of analysis, the
null hypothesis is that reconstructions and simulations are statistically
indistinguishable and, therefore, are exchangeable with each other. Ensemble
consistency is assessed for Northern Hemisphere mean temperature, Central
European mean temperature and for global temperature fields. Reconstructions
available for these regions serve as verification data for a set of
simulations of the climate of the last millennium performed at the Max Planck
Institute for Meteorology.
Consistency is generally limited to some sub-domains and some sub-periods.
Only the ensemble simulated and reconstructed annual Central European mean
temperatures for the second half of the last millennium demonstrates
unambiguous consistency. Furthermore, we cannot exclude consistency of an
ensemble of reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperature with the
simulation ensemble mean.
If we treat simulations and reconstructions as equitable hypotheses about
past climate variability, the found general lack of their consistency weakens
our confidence in inferences about past climate evolutions on the considered
spatial and temporal scales. That is, our available estimates of past climate
evolutions are on an equal footing but, as shown here, inconsistent with each
other. |
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