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| Titel |
Quantification of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to Last Interglacial sea level rise |
| VerfasserIn |
E. J. Stone, D. J. Lunt, J. D. Annan  , J. C. Hargreaves |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1814-9324
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Climate of the Past ; 9, no. 2 ; Nr. 9, no. 2 (2013-03-11), S.621-639 |
| Datensatznummer |
250018010
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/cp-9-621-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| During the Last Interglacial period (~ 130–115 thousand years
ago) the Arctic climate was warmer than today, and global mean sea level was
probably more than 6.6 m higher. However, there are large discrepancies
in the estimated contributions to this sea level change from various sources
(the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and smaller ice caps). Here, we
determine probabilistically the likely contribution of Greenland ice sheet
melt to Last Interglacial sea level rise, taking into account ice sheet
model parametric uncertainty. We perform an ensemble of 500 Glimmer ice
sheet model simulations forced with climatologies from the climate model
HadCM3, and constrain the results with palaeodata from Greenland ice cores.
Our results suggest a 90% probability that Greenland ice melt contributed
at least 0.6 m, but less than 10% probability that it exceeded 3.5 m, a
value which is lower than several recent estimates. Many of these previous
estimates, however, did not include a full general circulation climate model
that can capture atmospheric circulation and precipitation changes in
response to changes in insolation forcing and orographic height. Our
combined modelling and palaeodata approach suggests that the Greenland ice
sheet is less sensitive to orbital forcing than previously thought, and it
implicates Antarctic melt as providing a substantial contribution to Last
Interglacial sea level rise. Future work should assess additional
uncertainty due to inclusion of basal sliding and the direct effect of
insolation on surface melt. In addition, the effect of uncertainty arising
from climate model structural design should be taken into account by
performing a multi-climate-model comparison. |
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