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| Titel |
Environmental impacts of shipping in 2030 with a particular focus on the Arctic region |
| VerfasserIn |
S. B. Dalsøren, B. H. Samset, G. Myhre, J. J. Corbett, R. Minjares, D. Lack, J. S. Fuglestvedt |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 13, no. 4 ; Nr. 13, no. 4 (2013-02-20), S.1941-1955 |
| Datensatznummer |
250017669
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-13-1941-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We quantify the concentrations changes and Radiative Forcing (RF) of
short-lived atmospheric pollutants due to shipping emissions of NOx,
SOx, CO, NMVOCs, BC and OC. We use high resolution ship emission
inventories for the Arctic that are more suitable for regional scale
evaluation than those used in former studies. A chemical transport model and
a RF model are used to evaluate the time period 2004–2030, when we expect
increasing traffic in the Arctic region. Two datasets for ship emissions are
used that characterize the potential impact from shipping and the degree to
which shipping controls may mitigate impacts: a high (HIGH) scenario and a
low scenario with Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) of black carbon in the
Arctic. In MFR, BC emissions in the Arctic are reduced with 70%
representing a combination technology performance and/or reasonable advances
in single-technology performance. Both scenarios result in moderate to
substantial increases in concentrations of pollutants both globally and in
the Arctic. Exceptions are black carbon in the MFR scenario, and sulfur
species and organic carbon in both scenarios due to the future phase-in of
current regulation that reduces fuel sulfur content. In the season with
potential transit traffic through the Arctic in 2030 we find increased
concentrations of all pollutants in large parts of the Arctic. Net global
RFs from 2004–2030 of 53 mW m−2 (HIGH) and 73 mW m−2 (MFR) are
similar to those found for preindustrial to present net global aircraft RF.
The found warming contrasts with the cooling from historical ship emissions.
The reason for this difference and the higher global forcing for the MFR
scenario is mainly the reduced future fuel sulfur content resulting in less
cooling from sulfate aerosols. The Arctic RF is largest in the HIGH
scenario. In the HIGH scenario ozone dominates the RF during the transit
season (August–October). RF due to BC in air, and snow and ice becomes
significant during Arctic spring. For the HIGH scenario the net Arctic RF
during spring is 5 times higher than in winter. |
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