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| Titel |
Summertime cyclones over the Great Lakes Storm Track from 1860-2100: variability, trends, and association with ozone pollution |
| VerfasserIn |
A. J. Turner, A. M. Fiore, L. W. Horowitz, M. Bauer |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 13, no. 2 ; Nr. 13, no. 2 (2013-01-16), S.565-578 |
| Datensatznummer |
250017588
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-13-565-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Prior work indicates that the frequency of summertime mid-latitude
cyclones tracking across the Great Lakes Storm Track (GLST, bounded
by: 70° W, 90° W, 40° N, and
50° N) are strongly anticorrelated with ozone (O3)
pollution episodes over the Northeastern United States (US). We
apply the MAP Climatology of Mid-latitude Storminess (MCMS)
algorithm to 6-hourly sea level pressure fields from over 2500 yr
of simulations with the GFDL CM3 global coupled chemistry-climate
model. These simulations include (1) 875 yr with constant 1860
emissions and forcings (Pre-industrial Control), (2) five ensemble
members for 1860–2005 emissions and forcings (Historical), and (3)
future (2006–2100) scenarios following the Representative
Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and a sensitivity
simulation to isolate the role of climate warming from changes in
O3 precursor emissions (RCP 4.5*). The GFDL CM3 Historical
simulations capture the mean and variability of summertime cyclones
traversing the GLST within the range determined from four reanalysis
datasets. Over the 21st century (2006–2100), the frequency of
summertime mid-latitude cyclones in the GLST decreases under the RCP
8.5 scenario and in the
RCP 4.5 ensemble mean.
These trends are significant when assessed relative to the
variability in the Pre-industrial Control simulation. In
addition, the RCP 4.5* scenario enables us to determine the
relationship between summertime GLST cyclones and high-O3 events
(> 95th percentile) in the absence of emission changes. The
summertime GLST cyclone frequency explains less than 10% of
the variability in high-O3 events over the Northeastern US in the
model, implying that other factors play an equally important role in
determining high-O3 events. |
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