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| Titel |
An analysis of present and future seasonal Northern Hemisphere land snow cover simulated by CMIP5 coupled climate models |
| VerfasserIn |
C. Brutel-Vuilmet, M. Ménégoz, G. Krinner |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1994-0416
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: The Cryosphere ; 7, no. 1 ; Nr. 7, no. 1 (2013-01-21), S.67-80 |
| Datensatznummer |
250017403
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/tc-7-67-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The 20th century seasonal Northern Hemisphere (NH) land snow cover as simulated by
available CMIP5 model output is compared to observations. On average, the
models reproduce the observed snow cover extent very well, but the
significant trend towards a reduced spring snow cover extent over the
1979–2005 period is underestimated (observed: (−3.4 ± 1.1)% per
decade; simulated: (−1.0 ± 0.3)% per decade). We show that this
is linked to the simulated Northern Hemisphere extratropical spring land
warming trend over the same period, which is also underestimated, although the
models, on average, correctly capture the observed global warming trend.
There is a good linear correlation between the extent of hemispheric seasonal spring snow
cover and boreal large-scale spring surface air temperature in the
models, supported by available observations. This relationship also persists
in the future and is independent of the particular anthropogenic climate
forcing scenario. Similarly, the simulated linear relationship between the
hemispheric seasonal spring snow cover extent and global mean annual mean
surface air temperature is stable in time. However, the slope of this
relationship is underestimated at present (observed:
(−11.8 ± 2.7)% °C−1; simulated:
(−5.1 ± 3.0)% °C−1) because the trend towards
lower snow cover extent is underestimated, while the recent global warming
trend is correctly represented. |
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