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| Titel |
Impacts of climate change on the water regime of the Inn River basin – extracting adaptation-relevant information from climate model ensembles and impact modelling |
| VerfasserIn |
J. Korck, J. Danneberg, W. Willems |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7340
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Proceedings of the 15th Workshop on Large-scale Hydrological Modelling ; Nr. 32 (2012-12-20), S.99-107 |
| Datensatznummer |
250017331
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/adgeo-32-99-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
The Inn River basin is a highly relevant study region in terms of potential
hydrological impacts of climate change and cross boundary water management
tasks in the Alpine Space. Regional analyses in this catchment were performed
within the EU co-funded project AdaptAlp. Objective of the study was to gain
scientifically based knowledge about impacts of climate change on the water
balance and runoff regime for the Inn River basin, this being fundamental for
the derivation of adaptation measures.
An ensemble of regional climate projections is formed by combinations of
global and regional climate models on the basis of both statistical and
bias-corrected dynamical downscaling procedures. Several available reference
climate datasets for the study region are taken into account. As impact
model, the process-oriented hydrological model WaSiM-ETH is set up.
As expected, regional climate projections indicate temperature increases for
the future in the study area. Projections of precipitation change are less
homogenous, especially regarding winter months, though most indicate a
decrease in the summer. Hydrological simulation results point towards
climate induced changes in the water regime of the study region. The
analysis of hydrological projections at both ends of the ensemble bandwidth
is a source of adaptation relevant information regarding low-flow and
high-flow conditions. According to a "drought-prone scenario", mean
monthly low flow could decrease up to −40% in the time frame of
2071–2100. A "high-flow-increase-scenario" points towards an increase in
mean monthly high flow in the order of +50% in the winter, whilst
showing a decrease in autumn. |
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