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| Titel |
Modeling of water balance response to an extreme future scenario in the Ötztal catchment, Austria |
| VerfasserIn |
C. Tecklenburg, T. Francke, C. Kormann, A. Bronstert |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7340
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Proceedings of the 15th Workshop on Large-scale Hydrological Modelling ; Nr. 32 (2012-12-11), S.63-68 |
| Datensatznummer |
250017326
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/adgeo-32-63-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The aim of the study was to investigate the impact of climate change on the
water balance of the Ötztaler Ache catchment in Tyrol, Austria. For this
purpose the conceptual hydrological model HBV-D REG was applied. First, the
model was calibrated and validated using current observed climate and
discharge data. Second, the calibrated model was applied with reanalysis
data. Third, downscaled climate scenarios from 2010 to 2099 served as input
data to the HBV-D REG. Thereby two extreme land cover scenarios were
considered: for water balance modeling a constant glacier coverage from today
and additionally for runoff simulations a complete loss of glaciered area.
The downscaled climate data were generated with the expanded downscaling
method. Scenario simulations indicated an increase in annual areal
temperature by 3.4 °C and a slight decrease in annual areal
precipitation by 89 mm in the next one hundred years. According to the hydrological
modeling, these climate changes caused an increase in evapotranspiration and
a decrease in snow coverage. Furthermore model simulations showed an increase
in winter and spring runoff, whereas summer runoff was highly sensitive to
glacier coverage and decreased with complete loss of glacier coverage. |
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