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| Titel |
Statistical bias correction of global climate projections – consequences for large scale modeling of flood flows |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Eisner, F. Voß, E. Kynast |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7340
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Proceedings of the 14th Workshop on Large-scale Hydrological Modelling ; Nr. 31 (2012-12-11), S.75-82 |
| Datensatznummer |
250017312
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/adgeo-31-75-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| General circulation models (GCMs) project an increasing frequency and
intensity of heavy rainfall events due to global climate change. This rather
holds true for regions that are even expected to experience an overall
decrease in average annual precipitation. Consequently, this may be attended
by an increasing frequency and magnitude of flood events. However, time
series of GCMs show a bias in simulating 20th century precipitation and
temperature fields and, therefore, cannot directly be used to force
hydrological models in order to assess the impact of the projected climate
change on certain components of the hydrological cycle. For a posteriori
correction, the so-called delta change approach is widely-used which adds the
30-year monthly differences for temperature or ratios for precipitation of
the GCM data to each month of a historic climate data set. As the variability
of the climate variables in the scenario period is not transferred, this
approach is especially questionable if discharge extremes are to be analyzed.
In order to preserve the variability given by the GCM, methods of statistical
bias correction are applied. This study aims to investigate the impact of two
methods of bias correction, the delta change approach and a statistical bias
correction, on the large scale modeling of flood discharges, using the
example of 25 macroscale catchments in Europe. The discharge simulation is
carried out with the global integrated model WaterGAP3 (Water – Global
Assessment and Prognosis). Results show that the two bias correction methods
lead to distinctively different trends in future flood flows. |
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