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| Titel |
Precipitation forecasting through an analog sorting technique: a comparative study |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Ben Daoud, E. Sauquet, M. Lang, G. Bontron, C. Obled |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7340
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Towards practical applications in ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasting ; Nr. 29 (2011-04-05), S.103-107 |
| Datensatznummer |
250016940
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/adgeo-29-103-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This study aims at comparing two quantitative precipitation forecasting
techniques based on the meteorological analogy concept. Method A considers
first a selection of analogous situations at synoptic scale. Second a subset
of the most similar situations in terms of hygrometry is extracted. Method B
extends method A by two innovative ways, which are restricting the search
for analogues with temperature information instead of the common season
criterion, and exploiting the information about vertical motion considering
vertical velocity. Forecasts are evaluated in a perfect prognosis context
and in operational conditions as well, by mean of verification measures
(Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score and scores computed from
contingency tables). Results of the case study in France show that: (1)
there is an increase in forecast skill when temperature and vertical
velocity are included in the procedure, (2) it is possible to anticipate
rainfall events up to one week ahead and (3) the introduction of new
variables such as vertical velocity may be useless beyond few days ahead
if the forecast of the weather model is not reliable. |
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