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| Titel |
Forecast convergence score: a forecaster's approach to analysing hydro-meteorological forecast systems |
| VerfasserIn |
F. Pappenberger, K. Bogner, F. Wetterhall, Y. He, H. L. Cloke, J. Thielen |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7340
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Towards practical applications in ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasting ; Nr. 29 (2011-02-25), S.27-32 |
| Datensatznummer |
250016931
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/adgeo-29-27-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In this paper the properties of a hydro-meteorological forecasting system
for forecasting river flows have been analysed using a probabilistic
forecast convergence score (FCS). The focus on fixed event forecasts
provides a forecaster's approach to system behaviour and adds an important
perspective to the suite of forecast verification tools commonly used in
this field. A low FCS indicates a more consistent forecast. It can be
demonstrated that the FCS annual maximum decreases over the last 10 years.
With lead time, the FCS of the ensemble forecast decreases whereas the
control and high resolution forecast increase. The FCS is influenced by the
lead time, threshold and catchment size and location. It indicates that one
should use seasonality based decision rules to issue flood warnings. |
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