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| Titel |
A staggered approach to flash flood forecasting – case study in the Cévennes region |
| VerfasserIn |
L. Alfieri, P. J. Smith, J. Thielen-del Pozo, K. J. Beven  |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7340
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Towards practical applications in ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasting ; Nr. 29 (2011-02-25), S.13-20 |
| Datensatznummer |
250016929
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/adgeo-29-13-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| A staggered approach to flash flood forecasting is developed within the
IMPRINTS project (FP7-ENV-2008-1-226555). Instead of a single solution
system, a chain of different models and input data is being proposed that act
in sequence and provide decision makers with information of increasing
accuracy in localization and magnitude as the events approach. The first
system in the chain is developed by adapting methodologies of the European
Flood Alert System (EFAS) to forecast flash floods and has the potential to
provide early indication for probability of flash floods at the European
scale. The last system in the chain is an adaptation of the data based
mechanistic model (DBM) to probabilistic numerical weather predictions (NWP)
and observed rainfall, with the capability to forecast river levels up to
12 h ahead. The potential of both systems to provide complementary
information is illustrated for a flash flood event occurred on 2 November
2008 in the Cévennes region in France. Results show that the uncertainty
in meteorological forecasts largely affects the outcomes. However, at an
early stage, uncertain results are still valuable to decision makers, as they
raise preparedness towards prompt actions to be taken. |
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