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| Titel |
Size of the coming solar cycle 24 based on Ohl's Precursor Method, final estimate |
| VerfasserIn |
R. P. Kane |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
0992-7689
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Annales Geophysicae ; 28, no. 7 ; Nr. 28, no. 7 (2010-07-16), S.1463-1466 |
| Datensatznummer |
250016861
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/angeo-28-1463-2010.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In Ohl's Precursor Method (Ohl, 1966, 1976), the
geomagnetic activity during the declining phase of a sunspot cycle is shown
to be well correlated with the size (maximum sunspot number Rz(max)) of the next
cycle. For solar cycle 24, Kane (2007a) used aa(min)=15.5 (12-month running
mean), which occurred during March–May of 2006 and made a preliminary estimate
Rz(max)=124±26 (12-month running mean). However, in the next few months,
the aa index first increased and then decreased to a new low value of 14.8 in
July 2007. With this new low value, the prediction was Rz(max)=117±26
(12-month running mean). However, even this proved a false signal. Since
then, the aa values have decreased considerably and the last 12-monthly
value is 8.7, centered at May 2009. For solar cycle 24, using aa(min)=8.7,
the latest prediction is, Rz(max)=58.0±25.0. |
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