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| Titel |
Forecasting intense geomagnetic activity using interplanetary magnetic field data |
| VerfasserIn |
E. Saiz, C. Cid, Y. Cerrato |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
0992-7689
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Annales Geophysicae ; 26, no. 12 ; Nr. 26, no. 12 (2008-12-08), S.3989-3998 |
| Datensatznummer |
250016325
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/angeo-26-3989-2008.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Southward interplanetary magnetic fields are considered traces of
geoeffectiveness since they are a main agent of magnetic reconnection of
solar wind and magnetosphere. The first part of this work revises the
ability to forecast intense geomagnetic activity using different procedures
available in the literature. The study shows that current methods do not
succeed in making confident predictions. This fact led us to develop a new
forecasting procedure, which provides trustworthy results in predicting
large variations of Dst index over a sample of 10 years of observations and
is based on the value Bz only. The proposed forecasting method appears as a
worthy tool for space weather purposes because it is not affected by the
lack of solar wind plasma data, which usually occurs during severe
geomagnetic activity. Moreover, the results obtained guide us to provide a
new interpretation of the physical mechanisms involved in the interaction
between the solar wind and the magnetosphere using Faraday's law. |
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