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| Titel |
Performance of multi-model AEMET-SREPS precipitation probabilistic forecasts over Mediterranean area |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Callado, C. Santos, P. Escribà, D. Santos-Muñoz, J. Simarro, J. A. García-Moya |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7340
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: 11th EGU Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms (2009) ; Nr. 26 (2011-01-21), S.133-138 |
| Datensatznummer |
250015994
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/adgeo-26-133-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET) runs a daily experimental multi-model
Short-Range Ensemble Prediction System (AEMET-SREPS). The role of the system
horizontal resolution (0.25 degrees) on the performance of 24-h
precipitation probabilistic forecasts, and its relation with mesoscale
events, are assessed comparing the performance over the Mediterranean area
and over an European Atlantic area. Gridded high resolution rain
observations and standard verification measures have been used at different
precipitation thresholds, while studying the dependency on seasons for a one
year period (May 2007 to June 2008). As a general result, performance over
the Mediterranean area is higher than over the Atlantic one, albeit some
relative loss of skill is found in autumn, when mesoscale convective
organization is assumed to play a more important role. So it is suggested
that AEMET-SREPS system precipitation predictability over the Mediterranean
in autumn could be expected to improve if the horizontal and vertical
resolution is increased in order to take into account the effect of
meso-beta scale, especially important for convective organization. |
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