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| Titel |
One-step ahead prediction of foF2 using time series forecasting techniques |
| VerfasserIn |
K. Koutroumbas, A. Belehaki |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
0992-7689
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Annales Geophysicae ; 23, no. 9 ; Nr. 23, no. 9 (2005-11-22), S.3035-3042 |
| Datensatznummer |
250015375
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/angeo-23-3035-2005.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In this paper the problem of one-step ahead prediction of the critical
frequency (foF2) of the middle-latitude ionosphere, using time series
forecasting methods, is considered. The whole study is based on a sample of
about 58000 observations of foF2 with 15-min time resolution, derived
from the Athens digisonde ionograms taken from the Digisonde Portable Sounder
(DPS4) located at Palaia Penteli (38° N, 23.5° E), for the period
from October 2002 to May 2004. First, the embedding dimension of the
dynamical system that generates the above sample is estimated using the false
nearest neighbor method. This information is then utilized for the training
of the predictors employed in this study, which are the linear predictor, the
neural network predictor, the persistence predictor and the k-nearest
neighbor predictor. The results obtained by the above predictors suggest
that, as far as the mean square error is considered as performance criterion,
the first two predictors are significantly better than the latter two
predictors. In addition, the results obtained by the linear and the neural
network predictors are not significantly different from each other. This may
be taken as an indication that a linear model suffices for one step ahead
prediction of foF2. |
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