| This paper examines the effect of extreme summer temperatures on daily
mortality in two large cities of Iberia: Lisbon (Portugal) and Madrid
(Spain). Daily mortality and meteorological variables are analysed using the
same methodology based on Box-Jenkins models. Results reveal that in both
cases there is a triggering effect on mortality when maximum daily
temperature exceeds a given threshold (34°C in Lisbon and 36°C in
Madrid). The impact of most intense heat events is very similar for both
cities, with significant mortality values occurring up to 3 days after the
temperature threshold has been surpassed. This impact is measured as the
percentual increase of mortality associated to a 1°C increase above the
threshold temperature. In this respect, Lisbon shows a higher impact,
31%, as compared with Madrid at 21%. The difference can be attributed to
demographic and socio-economic factors. Furthermore, the longer life span of
Iberian women is critical to explain why, in both cities, females are more
susceptible than males to heat effects, with an almost double mortality
impact value.
The analysis of Sea Level Pressure (SLP), 500hPa geopotential height and
temperature fields reveals that, despite being relatively close to each
other, Lisbon and Madrid have relatively different synoptic circulation
anomalies associated with their respective extreme summer temperature days.
The SLP field reveals higher anomalies for Lisbon, but extending over a
smaller area. Extreme values in Madrid seem to require a more western
location of the Azores High, embracing a greater area over Europe, even if
it is not as deep as for Lisbon. The origin of the hot and dry air masses
that usually lead to extreme heat days in both cities is located in Northern
Africa. However, while Madrid maxima require wind blowing directly from the
south, transporting heat from Southern Spain and Northern Africa, Lisbon
maxima occur under more easterly conditions, when Northern African air flows
over the central Iberian plateau, which had been previously heated. |